Nijjar Case Charges Move Polymarket’s Hormuz Fee Odds to 72.5%

Criminal charges filed by US authorities over the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar have moved pricing on Polymarket’s on-chain prediction market tracking Iranian shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz, with the leading contract now implying a 72.5% probability that Tehran imposes such charges by the end of the year.

The development illustrates how decentralised prediction platforms are increasingly used by traders to price geopolitical risk in near real time, treating law-enforcement action in one jurisdiction as a signal for policy shifts thousands of miles away in the Gulf.

Charges name organised crime leaders behind Nijjar killing

US federal, local and international law enforcement agencies announced charges against Lawrence Bishnoi, 33, and Satinderjeet Singh, identified as organisers of the 2023 killing of Nijjar outside a Canadian temple where he served as president, according to blockchain.news. The action formed part of a wider operation charging 37 alleged members of India-based transnational organised crime groups accused of kidnapping, racketeering, extortion, firearms dealing, drug trafficking and murder.

US Attorney Bill Essayli said the operation reflected coordinated work across agencies in the United States, Canada and Europe, with authorities continuing to search for fugitives in multiple regions. Bishnoi is in custody, while Singh has not been apprehended, the report said.

Polymarket ladder shows sharp repricing on Hormuz fee bets

On Polymarket, the ladder market titled “Iran charges Hormuz fees by…?” has recorded $607,465 in matched volume. The December 31 rung, the longest-dated in the ladder, moved to 72.5% Yes against 27.5% No, up from 68.0% on the prior update, according to blockchain.news.

Nearer-dated rungs remain far more sceptical of an imminent policy move. The October 31 rung stands at 68.0% Yes versus 32.0% No, while August 31 sits close to a coin flip at 51.5% Yes against 48.5% No. The July 31 rung is priced at just 12.0% Yes, and the earliest deadline, July 15, sits at 5.25% Yes against 94.75% No. The contract is set to resolve by 23:59 UTC on 31 August 2026.

The distribution of odds across the ladder suggests traders are concentrating positioning on later-dated outcomes rather than expecting near-term Iranian action, a pattern consistent with markets pricing in a slower-moving diplomatic or enforcement timeline rather than an abrupt escalation.

Wider Iran-linked contracts point to heavier institutional flow

The Hormuz fee ladder sits alongside a cluster of larger Iran- and Gulf-related contracts on Polymarket that have attracted substantially higher volumes. “Will the US invade Iran before 2027?” carries an 86.5% No probability on $39,661,189 in matched volume, while “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” shows the December 31 rung leading at 42.0% on $7,786,626, according to blockchain.news.

A separate contract on shipping normalisation, “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?”, is priced at 95.5% No on $13,022,471 in volume, reflecting continued expectations of disruption in the near term. A fourth market, on Iran’s potential withdrawal from ongoing MOU negotiations, shows the August 15 rung leading at 25.0% on $1,821,438.

Taken together, the scale of capital committed across these adjacent markets — running into the tens of millions of dollars — underscores how prediction platforms are being used by traders as a supplementary gauge of geopolitical and shipping-lane risk, running alongside, rather than replacing, conventional macro and commodity market signals.

Read more: Polymarket’s 82.5% Fed-Hold Odds Show On-Chain Markets Pricing Geopolitical Risk