Mizuho Cuts Strategy Target to $213, Still Backs Bitcoin Treasury Model

Mizuho has reduced its price target on Strategy, the Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin treasury company formerly known as MicroStrategy, to $213 from $265, while retaining an outperform rating on the stock. The revision follows the company’s disposal of 3,588 Bitcoin for roughly $216 million, a transaction that has reignited debate among analysts over whether Strategy’s balance sheet management represents financial discipline or a warning sign for its highly leveraged Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

The brokerage’s lower target reflects an updated Bitcoin price assumption of $71,500 by the end of 2027, a figure Mizuho has built into its revised valuation model alongside Strategy’s latest holdings and recent disposals. Despite the more conservative price forecast, Mizuho’s continued outperform rating signals that it still expects material upside for MSTR shares from current levels.

Sale funds dividend obligations on digital credit securities

Strategy said the Bitcoin sale was intended to help fund dividend payments tied to its digital credit securities, a detail that underscores the financing pressures facing companies that have built corporate balance sheets around large, leveraged Bitcoin holdings. After the transaction, Strategy held 843,775 BTC alongside approximately $2.55 billion in US dollar reserves.

The disclosure initially unsettled markets, with Bitcoin briefly falling toward $61,000 before recovering above $63,000. MSTR shares mirrored that volatility, later climbing back above the $100 threshold and trading around $101 in premarket dealing, according to Yahoo Finance figures cited by crypto.news. The stock nonetheless remains down more than 34% since the start of the year, reflecting the wider strain Bitcoin’s prolonged bear market has placed on treasury-model equities.

Grayscale sees improved balance sheet and index prospects

Grayscale Research pushed back against the more negative reading of the sale in a report published on 6 July. According to the firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, Strategy’s financing structure remains well supported despite concerns raised by some market participants, and the transaction should be seen as strengthening rather than weakening its financial position.

Grayscale and other commentators have suggested the move could bolster Strategy’s balance sheet in ways that ease scrutiny of its financing model and potentially improve its prospects for eventual inclusion in the S&P 500 — a benchmark that has so far excluded the company despite its position as one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin globally.

Analysts split on interpretation of treasury sales

The episode highlights a broader tension facing institutional investors assessing corporate Bitcoin treasury vehicles: whether periodic disposals to meet cash obligations reflect prudent liquidity management or expose structural vulnerabilities in businesses whose equity value is closely tied to a volatile underlying asset. Mizuho’s decision to trim its target while holding its rating suggests the brokerage views the sale as a manageable adjustment rather than a signal of distress.

For UK and European institutional investors monitoring exposure to Bitcoin treasury equities, the divergence between Mizuho’s cautious repricing and Grayscale’s more constructive reading illustrates how differently analysts continue to weigh leverage, dividend commitments and index eligibility in valuing companies built around large digital asset holdings.

Read more: Strategy’s $135m Bitcoin Sale Bypasses Its Own $1.25bn Disclosure Cap