Ethereum’s Death Cross Meets Record ETF Outflows as Fed Turns Hawkish

Ethereum’s 50-week moving average has crossed below its 200-week counterpart for the first time in years, forming a so-called “death cross” that has coincided with the worst run of institutional withdrawals from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since their launch, according to data cited by Cryptopolitan. The convergence of a rare long-term technical signal with a seven-week outflow streak has intensified scrutiny of how deeply retail and institutional investors have become exposed through regulated crypto products.

Bitcoin was trading around $62,000, having failed to clear resistance in the $64,000 to $65,000 range, after briefly falling below $58,000 to a 21-month low. Ethereum was changing hands below $1,750, roughly 30% lower than a year earlier, while the broader crypto market capitalisation excluding Bitcoin and Ether has fallen 30% since January.

ETF outflows expose institutional exposure

US Bitcoin funds recorded outflows of nearly $1.79 billion in the week ending 26 June, according to SoSoValue data referenced in the report — the second-largest weekly outflow since the products debuted in January 2024, surpassed only by a $2.61 billion withdrawal in late February 2025. The run extended a seven-week outflow streak that began in mid-May, already the longest such stretch recorded for the category.

Spot Ether funds have not fared better, losing $273.34 million over the same period and marking their own seventh consecutive week of withdrawals. There was one point of relief: Bitcoin ETFs did end a ten-day streak that had totalled $2.7 billion in outflows.

The scale of the reversal is most visible in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest fund of its kind. According to Bespoke Investment Group data cited by Bloomberg, the average IBIT investor is now sitting on losses of close to 40%, a sharp swing from being up roughly 30% as recently as mid-2025. IBIT has attracted $60.26 billion in cumulative inflows but held net assets of $44.42 billion, after Bitcoin’s price fell more than 23% over the preceding 60 days.

A technical signal with a poor historical record for Ether

On-chain data shows Ether’s 50-week exponential moving average has now crossed below its 200-week counterpart — a pattern the asset had avoided through every previous sell-off. Traders on prediction markets are pricing a 72.3% probability that Ether falls to $1,500 before it rises to $3,000, reflecting broadly bearish positioning.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently reads 26, in “extreme fear” territory. The sell-off has unfolded alongside a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, which held interest rates unchanged at its 18 June meeting and dropped the word “ease” from its statement, with markets now assigning above 50% probability to a rate increase in December.

Institutional framework offers a counterweight

Some analysts argue the pessimism may be overstated, noting that every Bitcoin bear cycle since 2009 has ultimately given way at the point of extreme fear, with the next halving — which will cut new bitcoin issuance in half — expected in roughly 21 months. Unlike prior downturns, this cycle also features a more developed institutional infrastructure, including regulated spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations and a clearer legal framework for digital assets, factors some see as a structural buffer against further declines.

Read more: Ethereum ETF Inflows Extend to Fourth Day, But Concentration in BlackRock Fund Raises Questions