Bitcoin ETF outflows and holder losses complicate Glassnode’s ‘deep value’ call

Bitcoin has traded below two key on-chain valuation thresholds for roughly five months, according to Glassnode, leaving the asset in what the analytics firm terms “deep value” territory even as institutional demand through exchange-traded funds continues to falter. The persistence of both weak ETF flows and mounting losses among long-term holders is delaying confirmation of a market bottom, complicating the case for a near-term recovery.

BTC was trading at $62,396 at the time of writing, down 0.59% on the day. Glassnode said Bitcoin remains below the True Market Mean, near $76,600, and the short-term holder cost basis, near $72,200 — two metrics that track the average price paid by active investors and recent buyers respectively. Trading below both typically indicates that a large share of market participants are sitting on unrealised losses.

Bitcoin recently bounced from around $58,300 to $64,400, a move Glassnode described as showing short-term strength without restoring the coin above either of the main recovery levels. The firm said “the evidence suggests this process is approaching its later stages,” while cautioning that a further decline toward the realised price of roughly $53,000 cannot be ruled out.

Long-term holders continue realising losses

Glassnode data shows the share of total realised value attributable to long-term holder losses has climbed sharply since February, rising from 15% to 43%. This cohort, which includes investors who bought near the cycle highs and held through the subsequent drawdown, appears to be exiting positions as the bear market extends beyond initial expectations.

Daily long-term holder realised losses have reached approximately $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. Glassnode said this selling pressure has not yet cooled sufficiently to confirm exhaustion among sellers, with the coming weeks likely to prove decisive in determining whether the metric stabilises.

ETF flows remain a drag on institutional sentiment

Institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs has offered little relief. Glassnode said the 30-day average of net ETF flows has improved from roughly $193 million in daily outflows to $88.9 million, though flows remain firmly negative. Crypto.news previously reported that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, making it the weakest month for the products since their January 2024 launch.

Some easing has followed. Crypto.news reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $221.7 million in net inflows on 2 July, ending a ten-day outflow streak that had seen nearly $2.7 billion withdrawn over the preceding ten trading sessions. Glassnode nonetheless noted that daily ETF trading volume remains subdued, suggesting institutional conviction has not fully returned even as the pace of outflows moderates.

Recovery hinges on reclaiming key levels

The overall setup keeps market attention fixed on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $72,200 and $76,600 zones that mark the short-term holder cost basis and True Market Mean respectively. Until it does, Glassnode’s analysis implies BTC remains exposed to further selling pressure from long-term holders and to weak risk appetite among institutional allocators still reluctant to add exposure through ETF vehicles.

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